The Guest Blog: Ireland’s Pre-Christmas Election
Six in 10 eligible adults in Ireland have voted in the lacklustre 2024 General Election.
After all the complex counting in Ireland’s ‘Proportional Representation’ system, Fianna Fáil got 48 seats and is the leading party, with Fine Gael getting 38 seats and Sinn Féin winning 39 seats. A minimum of 87 seats are required to form a government.
86 seats might be enough if the Ceann Comhairle (Chair of the House) gives his casting vote. However, it is best to have a stronger majority to run the Government long term.
On the face of it, you would expect the three parties to form a coalition Government. Alas, that is not the case. It looks like Sinn Féin will not be in power as the main parties have stated they will not entertain such an arrangement.
So Micheál Martin as the leader of Fianna Fáil, the biggest party, is currently in discussions with Fine Gael and other parties as well as a large group of independent TDs to work out a deal to form a coalition.
The Fine Gael leader and Taoiseach (Prime Minister), Simon Harris, has warned politicians from other parties not to take his party for granted in Government coalition talks.
“It would be very difficult to form any Government without Fine Gael’s participation. Parity of esteem has always been an important concept in the previous coalition governments. It’s about the glue that holds a government together,” he said.
Parity of esteem was important in the last Government, as it facilitated a rotating Taoiseach (Prime Minister) between two of the three parties. The Green Party, the minority partner was not included in the rotation option.
The key players
So, who are the other main players that could make up the numbers. The Social Democrats, a Left party that exceeded expectations by winning 11 seats. The Labour Party, once a strong Left party finally recovered from a long spell of low support also got 11 seats and 21 independent TDs who are not aligned to any party who won seats.
The Social Democrats have announced, this weekend, that it will not consider going into Government with Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. It also decided not to align with the Labour Party.
Labour is divided internally about going into government, but the party is mostly against it. This view is strengthened without the Social Democrats forming an alliance with them.
Fergus Finlay, an adviser to the Labour Party in the 90s offered three words of advice to the party, as it considers the option to go into Government: “Don’t. Don’t. Don’t.”
Sinn Féin performed better than would have been expected. Its shining star began to fade in 2024 and the slip continued during the campaign. However, the party rallied sufficiently for its leader Mary Lou McDonald to insist she will build a left-wing opposition coalition.
The Green Party was all but wiped out. Its leader Roderick O’Gorman was the only member of the previous government coalition to survive. He is destined to the opposition benches.
Of the 21 Independents, a small number have already indicated that they are willing to support the two other parties in Government. Past experience has shown that those who offer support will seek the delivery of key issues in their local constituencies in return.
In the past week, a gathering of eight Independent TDs into a technical group, is the basis for the formation of the next government. They are Seán Canney, Verona Murphy, Michael Lowry, Noel Grealish, Marian Harkin, Kevin “Boxer” Moran, Barry Heneghan and Gillian Toole.
It is unlikely that all eight will continue to the end of negotiations. A critical issue for some, but not for others, will be the opportunity to hold office.
Some of the manifestos of these TDs are compatible with the likely government mandate and they have indicated a willingness to support, based on the vote of the two larger parties in government.
These Independents, for whom Michael Lowry – a former government minister and a man who knows the difference between office and power – is the first point of contact, will not rush into the embrace of the two larger parties until they put their own house in order.
Tricky issues
The Election results make it difficult to agree a government programme, but it is possible. The first issue that faces the Dáil (Parliament) when it meets on Wednesday December 18th is the election of a Ceann Comhairle, (Chairperson of the Dail). The Ceann Comhairle is elected from all Dail members. He/ she relinquishes party lines.
Fianna Fáil’s Seán Ó Fearghail, who has served two terms, said if elected he will serve again, but not for a full term. That complicates matters as the new Government would prefer to neutralise an Opposition vote by putting a non-Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael TD into the chair, rather than losing an important vote.
The reality is that there are tricky issues, which cannot be decided on quickly. Policy may be paramount, but as the major parties have been in coalition since 2016, there are no substantive differences.
The difficulties arise when those offering support to the coalition will seek the opportunity to be ministers along with a commitment to support local issues in the TDs constituencies. These will close the deal for Independents. The Independent TDs will hold the balance of power. Over the next five years, they will be disproportionately important in Government.
Independents will want to know if the office of the Taoiseach will rotate and for what period and the share of Cabinet seats among coalition partners.
They will not deal with a much larger dual entity whose own internal arrangements are not agreed. The pressure is on Michael Martin and Simon Harris to act. Harris is eager to move on these, while Martin is more cautious.
With so many long-protracted negotiations among all parties, it is unlikely that a new Government will be formed until mid- January. The outgoing ministerial cabinet will remain in place in a holding capacity.
What impact will this new Government have on Ireland’s relationship with the UK and Europe?
If Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael form a new coalition, the Irish Government will have a strong team of seasoned Ministers who have experience and relationships with the UK.
Indeed, it is obvious that the UK Labour Party is working on improving the relations between both countries. It is expected these efforts will, in principle, be supported by the Irish Government. After all, both countries share strong imports and exports.
The experience of these seasoned Ministers will be vital if Ireland is to continue to contribute to European Union. As an EU member State, Ireland will continue to have access a marketplace of 500 million people. Membership will also strengthen Ireland’s position as it sets out to manage the impact of the re-election of Donald Trump as US President, whose plans could affect foreign direct investment into this country.
The multibillion group of US companies in the pharmaceutical, medical device and technology sectors greatly contribute to the Irish economy and any effort to have them return to the US will have a major impact on jobs and future development.
Looking back on the three-week election campaign.
The Irish voters had some unusual experiences. Firstly, the Taoiseach called the election for November, which is far from ideal for the canvassers trying to win over voters in the dark and wet days.
Why pick such a date? The Government’s 5-year term was up in March 2025 and Sinn Féin’s support was waning, so it was thought best to go before Christmas.
Among the new TDs there are 52 councillors; two TDs involved in construction; seven lawyers; six teachers; three lecturers; three farmers; three accountants; a GP; a pharmacist; four TDs working in mental health and disability; an undertaker; a theatre manager; a print company owner; two trade union officials; three involved in hospitality; and seven working in the technology sector.
One candidate not in that success list as he was beaten on the last count was Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch, who is the leader of the Hutch criminal gang that has been in dispute with the Kinahan gang, which is the biggest drug dealing family in Europe. Gerry was granted bail by a Spanish court during the summer and he awaits a date in court to face these criminal charges.
Among those former TDs who lost their seats include the Minister for Health, Stephen Donnelly, The Green Party Minister for Tourism, Culture, Arts, Sport and Media, Catherine Martin and the Junior Minister for Health, Anne Rabbitte.
Finally a true story from the election stations. The Proportional Representation system in Ireland requires voters to list their preferences for the candidates listed in their constituencies. So you give your favourite candidate Number 1, the second favourite 2 and so on. One pensioner who had just voted was approached to participate in an exit poll. When asked how she voted, she replied: “I gave them all my number 1, as promised on the door step!”
David Curtin has over thirty years’ experience in the communications business. He managed many of the major communications campaigns in Ireland as well as providing a public relations service for the top Irish organisations and companies.