Trading places: How the UK’s post Brexit future looks rosier
With everything else going on this year, it seems so long ago that all we had to think about was Brexit.
But as 31st December 2020 looms ahead of us, and with it the end of the transition period, Brexit is returning to the fore: accompanied by a clear and growing emphasis on the need to a secure both a trade deal with the EU, and continuity arrangements with our other partners.
Last weekend saw the Prime Minister, still in self-isolation, and International Trade Secretary, Liz Truss confirm a roll-over trade deal with Canada - one that will effectively mimic the existing trading deal between the EU and Canada.
In reality, this was more an exercise in damage control than any great diplomatic achievement, however it has been trumpeted by the UK Government as a stepping stone for negotiations to begin on a more comprehensive deal next year. Expect more of these to come.
The clock is ticking.
Obviously, the key issue right now is closer to home, and the ongoing tug-of-war between our lead negotiator Lord David Frost and the EU’s own Michel Barnier.
Following a tense period where it looked like we would miss the new year deadline, we are now in the position where a deal is considered to be about 95% done. EU Ambassadors have been considerably more positive in updates about negotiations, mirroring an upbeat press briefing from the Commission President that good progress has been made.
Once massive chasms on contentious issues are now shrinking, with 11 key negotiation areas now having joint legal texts. Every day there are “fewer and fewer” outstanding points. Fishing is a key barrier, with the EU keen to link it directly to other sectors such as energy.
Expect a “dramatic intervention” by the PM soon as he and the Commission President tackle the remaining issues. However, the PM will need to tread carefully to ensure that any compromises do not incur the wrath of the hard Brexiteers in his party who are ever on the lookout for UK concessions, whether tangible or symbolic.
The big challenge now will be to avoid an accidental No Deal caused by running out of time. The Sun has been briefing that the new deadline is now next Tuesday, 1st December, putting significant pressure for a deal to be ratified at the EU end. An idea that has been floated to avoid this is for the deal to have “Provisional Application”, bringing it into effect on 1st January with ratification sorted afterwards.
Time is running out, but things are looking rosier than they did just a few weeks ago.
‘America First’ no more.
I am sure I am not the only one who spent a week glued to CNN waiting for the US election result, only to see it come through while washing the dishes.
As the dust settles on the most controversial US election in decades, we are beginning to see signs of a shift in dynamic. President Elect Biden was clear this week that ‘American First’ means ‘America Alone’, and his view is firmly that all of the problems the US faces as a country, other countries are facing as well – so we need to work together to solve them. His foreign policy stance is that "America is back" and wants to return to being THE world leader.
Tellingly, his first appointments to his inaugural Cabinet are internationally focussed roles: Antony Blinken will be Secretary of State, having previously served the Obama administration in the State Department; and Linda Thomas-Greenfield as Ambassador to the UN. This demonstrates a clear desire to work with other countries on as many issues as possible – though it will be interesting to see whether Blinken’s previous statement that Brexit is tantamount to a dog deliberately getting run over by a car will affect the Special Relationship.
There has been significant commentary that the Government will struggle to engage with the Biden Administration. President Trump has always been vocally pro-Britain and anti-EU; and is a fan of Boris Johnson, famously calling him ‘Britain Trump’ – a term which has haunted the PM, who was formerly considered one of the more metropolitan and internationalist figures within the Conservative Party.
Meanwhile, President Elect Biden is proudly Irish, and has criticised the UK Government for its Internal Market Bill – so a key element of the early days of this new relationship will be reassuring the new President that the Good Friday Agreement is not under threat. But, as we heard at our recent post-Election event with two leading US strategists, we are America’s most significant international partner – and notably the PM was the first international leader the President Elect spoke to.
This is not a standing start. Cavendish Advocacy recently held a webinar with the Trade Policy Minister, Greg Hands MP, which also included ABHI’s Richard Phillips on the panel. During the panel, we got the scoop that the Government has been discussing future relationships with Biden allies – saying that the Government has “been really keen throughout… to keep bi-partisan support in the US for doing a trade deal with the UK in principle. That has meant reaching out to governors, senators, members of Congress from both parties, while obviously recognising that we are negotiating with the current administration”.
What does this all mean for the HealthTech sector?
While he is just shy of two months from office, President Elect Biden has hit the ground running, and there are already signs of what might follow. Biden has already promised to find cures for cancer, Alzheimer’s and diabetes – so he will warmly welcome new innovations in those areas. This also suggests significant funding commitments to medical R&D.
The President Elect’s Covid-19 plan aims to increase American manufacturing of medical products – shortening the supply chain and maximising resilience. There was significant panic over supply of ventilators in the early days of Covid-19, and increasing domestic production, particularly in this area, will be one of the few continuations from the Trump era, which may well have impacts on medical trade.
On the EU front, medicine has not really been covered in speculation in terms of a Brexit deal. We have, this week, seen many in the pharma sector raise concerns that Brexit could delay supplies during the winter. While the sector looks to be as prepared as it can be, additional costs, red-tape and delays are possible – and readers should be sure to keep an eye on ABHI’s excellent Brexit Resources website.
Cavendish Advocacy, the UK’s leading government relations and corporate communications consultancy, have been following the post-Brexit trade situation closely, and working to establish partnerships abroad. We will be holding an event on the future of Europe later in the year – keep an eye on our website for more details.
David Button is a Senior Account Director at Cavendish Advocacy