ABHI Brexit Update: It Says it All
So, the (not really that much) anticipated vote of no confidence in her Majesty’s Government has not been forthcoming, and, therefore, Boris will have to wait for his election. But probably not for so long that it impinges on his festive celebrations. Although, one of the more scurrilous rumours I picked up in Westminster this week, was that Buckingham Palace had actually sought clarification on whether it could summarily dismiss the Prime Minister. Given what I said about the intemperate language used by some of our elected representatives last week, I cannot now possibly do the rather obvious “Orf with his head” gag. Tempting as it is.
The opposition parties appear to have taken the more cautious, and probably wiser, counsel offered them by all and sundry in what passes for our media these days. The no confidence route is a risky one. It is one thing to secure the simple majority required, especially when the Government might actually vote against itself, but then remains the perennial vexation, “What happens next?” If the vote was called under the auspices of the “Fixed Term Parliament Act,” and other routes are available apparently, the Fun House has 14 days to sort itself out. Perceived wisdom was that we would inherit a “Government of national unity,” to steer us through the choppy waters ahead, and secure the Article 50 extension so we can all breathe again for another year. The problem then is who would lead a caretaker Government in the interim. The Scottish Nationalists are pretty relaxed about Jeremy Corbyn having his fifteen minutes, the Lib Dems less so, and for the Tories the prospect is in ditch digging territory. Labour insist that it is their man or nobody and so we have an impasse. If the impasse was to last for the full fortnight, then an election would be triggered automatically, and would straddle the October 31st deadline. I am not sure why we need to be so fixated on a single figure head, there are other models. The High Court, the Triumvirate in Ancient Rome, even England’s Rugby team have flirted with co Captains, all of which might have avoided the current situation. But there we are, inhabiting the playground.
It says it all, does it not, that after three years, all the shenanigans, one suicide and one regicide in the Conservative party and a law to prevent us leaving the EU without a deal, we could still leave the EU without a deal by accident. It also comes to something when Parliament is considering a vote of no confidence, primarily because it does not trust the sitting Government not to willfully break the law.
Still, positive vibes were coming from Downing Street about the prospect of securing a deal later this month, and so avoiding the bits of the Benn Act they do not want to think about. A new “compromise” has been presented to Brussels and the DUP like it, as do, possibly, some of the swivel eyes on the Tory backbenches. But the good news is limited. The stumbling block is, as it always was, the Irish border. It has given me no pleasure to have been consistently right about this one. Finding a solution that addresses movement and citizenship rights, codified before the EU existed, allows local trade to operate locally and is consistent with the approach taken elsewhere on UK/EU borders, is almost by definition close to impossible. Furthermore, any new arrangements must protect the peace process which has always been fragile. That is where the backstop comes in, simply preventing the return of a hard border. The new proposals miss. They suggest that Northern Ireland remains part of the single market but leaves the customs union, a state of affairs that has to be confirmed by the Stormont Assembly every four years. Two borders, four years as it was initially being described. An East / West border in the Irish Sea for goods and a North / South border for customs. There is also the small matter that the Northern Ireland Assembly has not sat for almost three years, and if and when it eventually does return, the prospects of the DUP and Sinn Fein getting along have diminished. It led to enquiries for me from the US, wondering if this meant anything or was just gibberish. A better question that it may appear on the face of it.
The big problem for the EU, and particularly Ireland, is that Northern Ireland leaving the customs union means that there has to be customs checks somewhere on the island. The suggested friendly solution has always been to do them away from the border, but what I struggle to understand is how that helps. If you do checks away from the border, the point at which you perform the checks becomes a de facto border itself, and you then have to monitor goods that have cleared UK customs but remain physically in the EU and vice versa. Inspections at company premises cannot possibly cut it on the security front. Checks are not for those that follow the rules, but for those intent on doing the opposite. The prospect of laden vehicles moving freely around the island with their customs documents tucked into the glove compartment, will be viewed with relish by organisations who have funded their deadly endeavors through nefarious activity. The new proposals, therefore, are very unlikely to be accepted by the EU as they are, regardless of what our MPs may think. This has given rise to much talk of conspiracy. Boris may not have been serious about wanting to achieve a deal after all, thus he has tabled something that so obviously crosses red lines in the EU, he has set up a showdown on 19th October. With Benn supposedly watertight, rather than request an extension, Boris will resign as PM, but stay on as Party leader to prepare for the inevitable election in November.
You cannot but conclude that the Conservative Party conference was less its AGM than the kick-off of an election campaign. It was typical pre-election stuff. We are going to abolish income tax, build a new hospital on every other street corner and give us all our own close protection officer etc. etc, blah, blah, blah. If you want a more considered, and outrageously funny, review of events, your best bet is, as always, the Guardian’s wonderful Marina Hyde. And as always, she comes with a health warning. That her article is entitled “Raising hopes and denying gropes; Tory conference leaves no fantasy untouched,” gives you an idea of what you will be letting yourselves in for.
I am not even sure they should have been having their conference in the first place. The motion tabled in Parliament last week to allow a recess for the conference was defeated, but they held it anyway. I think they are past caring what people think or say, Supreme Court Justices or otherwise. Boris did not even bother to make it back for PM’s questions. Even though MPs were supposed to be in Westminster doing the job we pay them for, rather than chugging champagne and speaking at silly fringe meetings, they still managed to cause a rumpus. Geoffrey Clifton-Brown eh? The thing is this, sometimes when I look at what is on my CV, or think about some of the things I am responsible for these days, I worry a little about my own behavior on occasion. But this guy is a Knight of the Realm, and there he is going toe-to-toe with security staff. I am not sure what he was thinking. If he was trying to establish some sort of hard man credentials, kicking off inside the secure, ring of steel that is the Conference floor was perhaps not the best plan. He would have been better trying it outside the Hacienda across the road, even in its current guise as a block of flats. It also demonstrated a pretty poor sense of judgment. I reckon I would fancy my chances with Clifton-Brown, now or at any time in our adult lives, but I have never come off well in an exchange with a Bouncer. And if there is one city in our fair land that takes very seriously the line “Your name’s not on the list, you are not coming in,” it is Monchesta. I am not sure what the fall out will be, but credit where it is due, and hats off to Laura Kuenssberg, who was, I think, the first on social media to point out the rather unfortunate timing of the incident. At the precise moment the Home Secretary was standing up to (re) establish the Tories as the Party of law and order, the Treasurer of the 1922 Committee was being escorted from the conference, his fiancé whispering in his hear, “Come on Geoffrey, he’s not worth it.”
In the real world, the DIT has issued its latest guidance for companies, and this is almost your last chance to register for our Brexit seminar. It is going to be our best yet. There was also cause for celebration in Doha where the British athlete Katarina Johnson-Thompson (best forget she is now based in France, what with all this Brexit stuff) claimed the heptathlon gold medal in the world championships. When it mattered she delivered lifetime best efforts in four of the seven events. The performance of a Champion. I wondered if she is available over the next few weeks.
