ABHI Brexit Update: Hope and Expectation
My working week has been spent in the United States, predominantly Texas. If you know your history, and I admit it took a visit to the State Capitol on Sunday to piece it all together in my own mind, you will know that until relatively recently, Texas was in Mexico. Many people will tell you that the state has never really fully embraced being part of the Union. It certainly feels somewhat removed. The memorials to those killed during the Civil War, unashamedly support the legitimacy of the Confederate cause. Such is the world in which we are living, it would not be entirely surprising if, one day, Texas was to cede. It certainly would not feel much of a financial chill. I was in Austin, visiting our friends at the Dell Medical School, where we have our Innovation Hub. If the city itself was to make a UDI it would just about make it into the top 50 of the world’s richest economies. Add in the rest of the substantial Lone Star and you get to number 13. With its wealth, self confidence and sense of identity, I am sure that Texas could make a decent fist of it on its own. There is something there that must chime with the position we currently find ourselves in, although I am not sure what it is or if I would agree with it if I did.
Texas certainly has the advantage of a sense of common purpose, something I am not sure our disunited Kingdom will enjoy again for a very long time.
You may remember that European President Donald Tusk urged us to “not waste this time” when we were granted the Flextension. In the three weeks since then you might have noticed not very much has happened. Conspiracy theories abound. I mentioned last week that the leak from the National Security Council was likely to be a runner and it has certainly dominated the news these past few days. The summary dismissal of the rather hapless Defence Secretary, Gavin Williamson, despite his protestations of innocence has not been unhelpful for the PM. I am not really thinking that it gave her one of the final chances she will have to make such decisions as her time in Number 10 runs down. Rather, not only did his sacking hold the headlines on the day after it happened, the fallout and callings for a criminal investigation dominated the following day as well. All of this kept Brexit out of the news in the run up to yesterday’s local elections, which was pretty handy for the Conservative Party all things considered. In the end, and with the counting continuing as I write, the Tories had a bad night anyway with losses on a fairly seismic scale. It was not great for Labour either. Ordinarily the main opposition party, at this stage in the electoral cycle with a floundering government, would expect to make hay. Labour did not and, indeed, lost ground in their traditional heartlands. The Lib Dems did make ground, as did the Greens, and not just in Remain voting areas. Nobody is pretending that the results are not, in large part, about Brexit. The Conservatives being punished for its failure to deliver and Labour for its indecision.
The PM did not get off completely Brexit free this week. In an intriguing engagement, on Wednesday she appeared in front of the Liaison Committee. This is the one made up of the heads of Parliament's Select Committees, and prominent in the questioning was FLL. It feels like a shame that we will never see the two head to head at the dispatch box.
May said if the UK wants to have trade agreements on goods, it needs to be able to vary tariffs. Under the government's plans the UK would be able to have free trade with the EU, but different tariffs for the rest of the world. Good luck with getting Brussels to agree to that. Always remember that whatever our aspirations are, everything has to be ratified by Europe.
On the ongoing talks with Labour, May insisted that both sides are talking about what they want to achieve. There is "a greater commonality in terms of some of the benefits of the customs union" that they have identified, she said. That was quite an interesting thing for the PM to say. It seems to indicate that there is actual progress being made in the talks when it was assumed that they were taking place in an environment devoid of hope, let alone expectation. Commentators are predicting that the PM is looking to bring her Withdrawal Agreement Bill back next week once the local elections are out of the way.
But with everything in all of this it is not straightforward. “Customs Union,” as I have said before is toxic to hardline Brexiters on the government benches. They regard it as not being Brexit, and they have a point. If the Bill gets knocked back, we are looking at yet more uncharted water ahead.
Labour too has its problems. In what is being broadly regarded as a victory for Jeremy Corbyn, the Party’s position on a second referendum has been somewhat diluted. Rather than call for the vote in any event, as advocated by Deputy Leader, Tom Watson, amongst others, the second referendum position would only be adopted if any deal was not regarded as acceptable by Labour leadership. It has infuriated some, but might actually not be a bad move tactically. It keeps Labour very firmly on the fence and free to move later, which pretty much seems to have been the strategy all along. Above all Corbyn wants a General Election and history will not judge him well for maintaining this focus as opposed to making a success of Brexit or coming out firmly against it.
As always, stay tuned in to our Brexit resources page which has been updated this week to include the latest EU Exit Readiness bulletin from the team at DHSC.
