ABHI Brexit Update: The Wacky Race Continues
It could be worse. You could have been trying to be a bit clever this past week or so, avoiding the half termers and booking yourself a cheeky short break in Skegness. But this is high summer in England, and Lincolnshire enjoyed, if that is the right word, two years’ worth of rainfall in about 20 minutes the other day. People were evacuated. The RAF was deployed.
Everyone in the world, it seems, is convinced that the Blonde Buffoon is nailed on to be our next PM. But where there is life. He is not actually there just yet, and we have not actually left the European Union just yet. He has also had another soccer manager style endorsement which will be giving him the willies. This time from Esther McVey. With friends like these.
And so, the wacky race continues towards its denouement, and so the number of casualties must rise. Last weekend Health Secretary Matt Hancock withdrew, but not, I think, because he is so deeply committed to his current brief that he wants to be there when the NHS is finally fully digitised. He rather gave the game away when he talked about being a candidate for the future when this race was about the here and now. He is ambitious and biding his time, awaiting his moment. I think he thinks he is going to be the one after the one after the next one. Brexit may well do for whomsoever prevails this time around, and leading the Tories into 2022 could be the stuff of nightmares. Hancock will also reason that he is still young enough to follow a 12-15 year plan to get into Downing Street.
His predecessor in Health, Jeremy Hunt, has been telling us that he is the man to get us a new Brexit deal before the end of October. He has also served notice to EU negotiators that it is not just Dominic Raab that has serious hard man credentials. The man whose surname continues to induce panic amongst BBC current affairs presenters, has been wading into Jeremy Corbyn. Hunt, that is HUNT, has attacked the Labour leader for not immediately and unequivocally supporting The Donald who is getting all bent out of shape about attacks on shipping in the Gulf. Baby face has convinced himself that the Iranians are behind it and his trigger finger is getting itchy. Corbyn is amongst those advocating caution and wanting to see a bit more of a smoking gun. Now, you know I am not a conspiracy theorist. It is never a conspiracy; people are simply not that clever. But there is something a bit funny peculiar about this one. Granted, Tehran is not exactly renowned for executing sophisticated international relations. Iran is the only country you have heard of that is not part of the World Trade Organization, for example. But blowing up Japanese tankers whilst simultaneously hosting a visit from the Japanese Prime Minister? It’s either an audacious “not me Guv” double bluff or else it is one for the mysterious list, alongside the assassination of JFK, the disappearance of Lord Lucan and the moon landings. Still, the EU knows what it is in for if the Foreign Secretary pulls off an upset in the coming weeks.
There have been TV debates. Quite why the hustings for an election in which only a vanishingly small proportion of the population can take part qualifies for prime time, I am not sure. Doubtless the schedulers are happy, typically there is nothing worth watching on terrestrial now until the autumn. There is also the possibility of incremental advertising revenue. And how. Some wag on social media pointed out that one of the products that took advantage of this almost unique opportunity, was a cream for the treatment of thrush. There is a gag there. Oh yes, there is a gag there, but I think it is more in Marina Hyde’s space than my own. The pantomime, however, ran into trouble from the outset. Boris’s minders would not let him play out for the first one, and, let us face it, the debate without Boris is a bit like Take That without Robbie. But Team Boris has a pretty transparent plan for their man. It was picked up by BBC Radio 4’s Dead Ringers, who had Boris starring as “The Man Who Haunted Himself.” The perceived wisdom is that the only person who can beat Boris is Boris himself, and his people are on it. They are seriously limiting his public exposure and, hence, his ability to produce a game over gaff. In fact, he has, so far, been so measured and controlled, that I wonder if they have not managed to attach a set of smart electrodes to his testicles. Programmed to deliver voltage if he drifts into Boris speak, mentions immigration or attempts to answer questions on the specifics of his track record. So far so good. Indeed, not appearing in the first debate delivered immediate results, when our Matt (see above) threw his weight behind Boris, a hedged bet if ever there was one. But it is not a strategy without risk. If you stop Boris being Boris, what are you left with? Turn him into an identikit safe, sensible politician and others will point to his lack of substance.
Leaving the process on Tuesday in a body bag was Dominic Raab. I cannot say I was surprised. In an environment where stark raving bonkers is the new sensible, Raab’s plan to shut down Parliament so he could have unfettered access over the Brexit cliff edge really stood out. Next man down was Rory Stewart, who Iasted one round longer than I had predicted. He had appeared to be corralling support, but his departure now means that all the remaining candidates are pledging to priortise tax cuts over public spending. Something that Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham highlighted in his address to the NHS Confederation this week. Rory was doing particularly well in the Vox Pox up and down the country. It is just a shame that most of the radio phone in types who partake in these things did not get a chance to vote for him this time. And it was just when it looked like that there might be a Remain leaning Tory capable of convincing his Party that he could carry the popular vote. My daughter thinks he is actually Rod Stewart’s son. Given the track record of the gravel-voiced King of the Covers, it is probably less of a conspiracy theory than the others I have mentioned.
Sajid Javid departed in the first of yesterday’s votes, which may or may not prompt further discussion on racial diversity at the top of public life in our country. And falling at the last hurdle was Michael Gove. If you read my rather silly Christmas special, you will recall that it had Gove as the next PM. Add that to my frequent, confident predictions that Boris would not make the ballot and the timing of Stewart’s departure and you can see my record as a pundit has been pretty abysmal since the Six Nations. On the assumption that I am an actual jinx, I will predict now that Australia will beat India in the final of the Men’s Cricket World Cup next month.
I am not sure where this all gets us with Brexit. Boris is committed to leaving on October 31st come what may and insists there will be no second referendum if he is Prime Minister. Hunt is not so hung up on the date, and has not categorically ruled out a second referendum, although, admittedly, he does seem to have a particular appetite for one. We will see. As we know, people can say what they like in London, but when they get to Brussels they will face 27 countries who have not had any dinner. Chancellor, Phil Hammond has also warned both men that any war chest that might support tax cuts will disappear in the event of a no deal, and the UK would have to get used to a permanently shrunk economy. Contingency planning for October continues, and my thanks to those who are contributing to our thinking, but there is so little progress generally that I cancelled my regular catch up with the DHSC’s Brexit people this week.
It could be worse. (For us) Part Two. At ABHI Towers we are used to having frank, often difficult conversations with officials in the DHSC. Occasionally we get a summons from Secretary of State level, although they are not usually unexpected and we do tend to be prepared. Not so our comrades in arms at the British Sandwich & Food to Go Association (Yes, really). They find themselves at the centre of a review into food supplied to the NHS, following a series of tragic deaths linked to listeria contacted from prepackaged goods. It made me reflect on the gravity of what we do every day as an industry, and the responsibility we bear for the patients we serve and the staff we support. I also reflected how very well and how very reliably we meet those obligations.
Until next time, enjoy the weather. The nights start drawing in tomorrow.
