ABHI Brexit Update: The decisive day?
And so it goes on. Absolutely interminable. I do know now at least exactly what the phrase “grateful for small mercies,” is all about. I only have to try and write this for you once a week. And if I miss the occasional one, I can still run to a new winter coat and shoes for the wife and a bicycle on the boy’s birthday. Well, girl’s in my case. But imagine being one of the full time lobby hacks. It is relentless, not even just once a day now with modern media wires and the interwebthingy. What do they write? What can they write? “Once again, on a day bathed in hyperbole and amid anticipation that events would prove decisive, events proved not to be decisive.” Actually they could probably say anything they wanted to. Nobody knows what is going on and nobody seems to know what is supposed to happen to get things going on. Take Tuesday night’s shenanigans. 15 amendments to the PM’s Written Statement which followed the rejected Withdrawal Agreement appeared on the Order Paper, one of which also came with five amendments itself. Any one of these could have had a very significant impact on the immediate, short, medium and long-term future of our country. But there is not enough time to debate them all. So what criteria do we use to decide which epoch making decisions to consider? The whim of a grumpy little man who is the part time MP for Buckingham. Try explaining that to a Vulcan.
I do wonder if all this might be easier to follow if someone, at some point since Magna Carta, had gone to the trouble of writing down our Constitution. Why has it not happened? Is it over there in the too difficult box, alongside digital strategy, world peace and a car policy the sales reps are happy with? Is it that the personality traits of those who might actually be able to do it, are the same personality traits that make it impossible for them to persuade anybody else that it should be a priority? Or maybe successive generations have handed the job over to the “naturals,” people with, frankly, my own outlook on life. Well capable and setting about the task with sincere intentions and due diligence, but concluding, perhaps a little too soon, that all this is a lot of cobblers and we should just go and get lagered up instead.
I suppose having some sort of rulebook would only make life even harder for aforementioned hacks. As it stands they have arcane procedures fit for the 17th Century to debate, and drama and theatre to describe. If only this were a drama being played out in a theatre.
So what happened on Tuesday then? Well it started out as a day bathed in hyperbole amid anticipation that events would prove decisive. The grumpy little man who is part time MP for Buckingham decided that seven amendments would be debated. In the end two were passed. One laid down by Sir Graham Brady, requiring the Irish backstop be replaced with “alternative arrangements,” thus allowing MPs to support the deal. The other, from Dame Caroline Spellman, rejecting leaving the EU without a deal.
The most significant aspect of the Brady amendment was the fact that the PM supported it. That is after expending an enormous amount of energy, over a very long period of time, insisting that there could be no changes to the Withdrawal Agreement as drafted. Another “Ring any bells?” moment for you. There is also a significant problem with the amendment. The EU has consistently said that there can be no changes to the Withdrawal Agreement as drafted. It took them all of seven minutes after the vote to say so again. The PM now finds herself in a position eerily reminiscent of that of her predecessor. She has to go to Brussels pleading for them to give her something that looks like a compromise, whilst making sure that they give her a something sufficiently significant to get her own rebellious Brexiteer MPs onside. Unlike David Cameron, however, she now also has the added complication of making sure that the something is not so significant that it upsets the DUP, whose support she also needs. She is hampered further by the fact that nobody seems to have a clue what the “alternative arrangements” might look like. So the EU will listen politely and ask repeatedly precisely what it is she wants.
She has given herself two weeks to get this done, with the promise of another round of votes on 14th February. Brace yourselves now for a barrage of gags from media wags about lover’s tiffs, and, if she cannot get a deal or the deal she does get it is not sufficiently significant for the Brexiteers, a mockup of Jacob Rees-Mogg as Al Capone staring at you from the front pages of the red tops.
The Spellman amendment is being described by most commentators as “symbolic.” It is not legally binding and really only expresses the widely known view that Parliament thinks a no deal would be a bad thing. It need not have been that way had the Cooper Boles amendment I highlighted last time got through. That it did not, and that the Brady amendment did, offered some welcome solace for the PM. She might well, and at another time almost certainly would, have lost both votes. It took only a small number of Labour MPs to defy the whip and vote with the Government / abstain to give her two valuable wins – seven on Brady and 25 on Cooper. Significantly, the rebels were from Midland and Northern constituencies that had voted to leave. Downing Street is now working on convincing this cohort that they should get behind whatever deal it is she can secure (possibly even what she already has), avoiding both no deal and the appearance that they tried to block Brexit. There will be sweeteners. The promise of investment in some of our most deprived city regions would help ease the consciences, and protect the majorities, of those who otherwise would rather not be been seen to be in cahoots with the Tories. If she were successful, the parliamentary arithmetic begins to look quite different, her own detractors and the 10 votes of the DUP suddenly less significant.
Jeremy Corbyn seems strangely unconcerned that his lack of authority has prevented the Government suffering two further, damaging defeats. Maybe he has a plan beyond just sitting back and seeing what happens. Quiet also this week have been the People’s Vote crew, but they are almost certainly biding their time. They know that whilst there is a semblance of unity in the Conservative Party at the moment, the margins are wafer thin. If Mrs. May returns with nothing, something fairly drastic will be required to break the deadlock and prevent a crash out.
We will see, but that is another two weeks gone by, and our friends in the Institute for Government are at the forefront of those suggesting that we will now not be ready by the end of March whatever happens. Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt is the latest significant figure to float the idea of extending Article 50. Others will follow.
Meanwhile in the real world (1). We joined assorted Ministers for the latest gathering of the EU Relationship group on Tuesday. There is certainly a greater sense of urgency to contingency planning now, and some of the really fine detail about how goods are moved is being worked through. The plea from us industry types was for even more urgency and rather more in the way of communication.
Meanwhile in the real world (2). We continue to try and help you ensure you are as Brexit ready as you can be. You may have seen the note yesterday that highlighted additional resources posted on our web page, and also our next workshop which is being held on 15th February. It will be a good day to be with us given the one before will be bathed in hyperbole amid anticipation that events will prove decisive.
Meanwhile in the real world (3). I managed to get home to Cornwall last weekend for some sanity. I can report that the mood in the Fisherman’s Arms is one of bemused ambivalence. I reckon we believe we will be alright Cousin Jack. All that needs to happen is for someone to do an Alec Guinness on the Tamar Bridges, a few tractors to park up on the Dunheved and we are practically independent. And self sufficient. We can grow things down there 12 months of the year nobody else can. We have a famously great dairy heard and the beef cattle are as good as any. I am especially well placed, living in the UK’s most valuable fishing port, where 2 million or so of my closest neighbors are mackerel. Soft fruit? The once lost gardens at Heligan have an operational pineapple pit. No need to stockpile, just head West, where it is also about 10 degrees warmer than wherever it is in the UK you are reading this.
