The Friday Blog: Just Wanting it to End, Whatever the Outcome
I suspect I may have trouble convincing some of you that I am, in fact, a shy, modest and unassuming kind of guy. But genuinely, as well as being hugely flattered and highly self-satisfied, I am also appropriately embarrassed to announce that I am back in your inbox at this time by popular demand. Enough of you lovely, kind people, along with my wonderful colleagues here at ABHI Towers, have convinced me that the absence of my rather unhinged and somewhat disjointed ramblings alongside the 4 O’clock cuppa, has rendered your Friday afternoon lives an echoing void. The plan, then, in the absence of illness, injury, holiday or apathy, is for me to be here each week with what we just call The Friday Blog, thus relieving me of my obligation to focus only on Brexit.
I have no idea what the prevailing themes will be. Likely as not the fortunes of the Cornish Pirates and the misery of fandom. You will know how that goes, you kid yourself you are enjoying standing on a windswept terrace watching, when you know that actually you are in perilous, stroke inducing territory. The Pirates won the EDF Trophy in 2007, edging past the Exeter Chiefs at Twickenham in what Test Match Special’s Michael Vaughan would call a “nipper.” That was after a far closer than was healthy affair against Plymouth Albion in the semi at Camborne Rec. I do not remember how much it must have cost me in tickets and transport to attend those games, let alone the commemorative jersey for the Final that I still wear with pride. The only thing I can remember of close to three hours of what was obviously captivating football, is sitting in the stands, feeling sick and just wanting it to end whatever the outcome.
I imagine that is how some you felt about the General Election. That we should be going to the polls anyway during the Christmas build up was probably an appropriate denouement to the pantomime that has been politics in our country this year. Neither the political system, nor those in it, have exactly covered themselves in glory since Santa last came your chimney. Even the BBC talks, chillingly, about “post-truth politics.” It is also the third General Election in five years, which does make you wonder what the point of the Fixed Term Parliament Act actually is. There is talk of a repeal. Proposing, and consenting to an election was a big risk for both sides. Boris was actually getting Brexit done, his Withdrawal Bill beginning to make progress through Parliament, but he felt hamstrung, wanting an arithmetic with which to govern. Whilst he would have been quietly confident from the outset, the PM would have also been conscious of the fate of his predecessor, and the prospect of enjoying an extremely limited tenure will have haunted him. The Remain leaning coalition had the Government on a very short leash, making it fight for every inch of ground, and there was no shortage of scrutiny. The main problem for the coalition was that it was not, actually, any sort of coalition, suffering from the “cannot get on with each other” syndrome, which blights progress in any number of areas the world over. Eventually, they, and Corbyn in particular, ran out of road. He could only claim to be a credible Prime Minister in waiting, whilst turning up the chance to be elected, so many times.
Elections are never about one thing, which is why it was never the right vehicle to settle the Brexit debate once and for all, but that it is how it played out. History will record that the Conservatives got their strategy right. They delivered a single, simple message appealing to the emotions of a nation weary of the B word, whilst keeping their leader out of the firing line. I am not sure if the Labour Party even knew itself what its strategy was, and even had they had a single, simple message, it would have been drowned out by concerns over the Party’s leadership. Corbyn ended up being the disaster at the polls that many centrists feared. The LibDems also had a single, simple message, but history will show they got their strategy very, very wrong, in both content and delivery. It cost their leader her seat and her job.
Like his politics or not, Jeremy Corbyn is that rarity in this age, a conviction politician. Islington is probably a greener, more community based place than it might have been had he not been the MP there for so long. His place in history, though, will be that of the man that gifted the Tories a sizeable majority. I do not doubt Jo Swinson’s sincerity, but she is finished as a mainstream public figure. Politics is a cruel, unforgiving and sometimes unfair enterprise.
And so onto the business of getting Brexit done. Three times this year we peered over the “cliff edge,” and each time we stepped back. Expect a sense of déjà vu in 2020. First, the Withdrawal Bill needs to pass through Parliament and be ratified by Europe before we can enter a transition / implementation phase in February. Then, at some point mid-year, the deadline is 1st July, we will have to surrender to the inevitable fact that we are not going to complete negotiations on a UK/EU trade deal by the 31st December deadline. Whilst that is not the official line as I write, Ladbrokes are probably not taking bets on it. That becomes additionally problematic as any extension comes with a price tag, 2021 heralding a new EU budget period. This time next year we will be holding our breath again.
2019 was another tough year for the NHS. You do not have to look too far outside your window to see the effect that 10 years of austerity has had on local public services. In contrast, the NHS has done well, but increases in spending have been below the levels needed to keep pace with demographic pressures. For the first time in a long time, waiting times have moved out significantly, and regulators are telling providers privately to focus on delivering care safely rather than try to tick all their performance boxes. 2019/20 was seen as a balancing year for the NHS as we progress to a formal set of Integrated Care Systems across England by 2021. The challenge is, as always, the money. It is fair to say that some areas have embraced the idea of integration better than others, and that includes a new financial regime where organisations will have to consider a collective balance sheet. Some are reluctant to make that particular leap of faith, so I would expect to see legislation designed to expedite the implementation of the NHS Long Term Plan, tackle the integration of budgets. Whether or not the issue of capital spending will be addressed at the same time remains to be seen. It could be that all is needed is a tweak to accounting rules, perhaps an uplift to the Capital Departmental Expenditure Limits (CDEL) or some freedom to allow organisations to go to the market to fund projects. The integration agenda will progress at pace next year and ABHI’s regional strategy has been designed to help members exploit some of the opportunities it presents.
As we look towards a future outside of the European Union, ABHI has progressed thinking on how, in the short term, new trade agreements can benefit our sector and, in the longer term, how we harness our regulatory prowess to best advantage.
A taste then of some of the themes we might consider in the weeks and months ahead. Wishing you all a very peaceful Christmas and I will talk to you again in January when we will take a closer look at the Queen’s Speech (again).