ABHI Brexit Update: It's all a Matter of Timing
Greetings one and all. I trust you enjoyed the rather unseasonal Bank Holiday weather as much as I did, although the top of my one slightly cauliflowered ear always seems to get sunburnt. The sweet point was undoubtedly on Sunday, although had nothing to do with the chocolate eggs I warned you about last time.
On a perfect afternoon, under a blazing sun, hence my ear, at the Grand Old Lady of all English rugby grounds, Mennaye Field, Penzance, the Cornish Pirates finally got on the right side of the scoreline. A first win in eight, as welcome as it was unexpected, was achieved despite having to endure three yellow cards, two of which were plain wrong. I am not sure how many were at the game, but some survey or other I saw during the week reckoned that Cornwall was the number one destination for our MPs to spend their Easters. I cannot say that I recognised many Westminster types in the crowd, but then again, I do not suppose that they would have been standing in Naughty Boys’ Corner either. Those Honourable Members, including a fair smattering of Ministers, who did make it down to the Leave voting heartlands of the Wild West, would, doubtless, have been keeping themselves to themselves in their holiday homes. They would leave it to others to explain, for example, why there was now no money for the next phase of the ambitious redevelopment of Newlyn Harbour. What has the EU ever done for us eh? To be fair, Sunday was probably a packing up day for many of them, travel on Monday to be ready for business to start again in the Fun House on Tuesday.
I will except from that last dig, Mark Garnier, whose family have been in our village since his grandfather, Geoffrey Sneyd, became a prominent member of the Newlyn School of Artists at the turn of the last century.
The one MP I did see over the break was my own, the impressively hard-working Derek Thomas. I spied Derek through the window of a Penzance curry house on Thursday evening. I was inside filling my boots, he was up and down Market Jew Street waving the Blue Flag. In fact, this week he is still on local election duty somewhere so could not meet me for a pint in Strangers, which tells you a lot about how little business is actually being conducted at the moment and how worried the Tories are about those elections. Always a bellwether for just how unpopular an incumbent government actually is, the Party is terrified that its Council representation will be decimated such is the hash it is making of Brexit. A lot of MPs are wearing out a lot of shoe leather to try and salvage the situation.
The other set of elections which are also distracting people are, of course, those for the European Parliament. All sorts of interesting candidates are appearing. Change UK, Heidi Allen’s stubbornly static group of independent MPs, desperately seeking to extend their 15 minutes, have rolled out former BBC stalwart, Gavin Esler and Rachel Johnson, sister of Boris, which could make for an even more interesting Christmas than usual in that particular household. Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party has snared Ann Widdecombe I am surprised at her decision. Having gone through the emotional pain of a weekend with Louis Theroux and the physical pain of Strictly, presumably in an attempt to achieve “National Treasure” status, defection to the really nasty Party is likely to send her into reverse. Maybe she is missing the hate mail. I could be cynical but she is also embarking on a UK tour of “An Audience With…” so maybe it is a publicity stunt. And I am assuming that the cancellation of her gig in Penlee Park in June is more about her impending election as an MEP, than disappointing advance ticket sales.
That is of course if we actually take part in the European Elections. Most of the Brexit action this week has been behind the scenes jiggery-pokery. Not least plans for Downing Street to push ahead with the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB), the piece of legislation that allows us to leave. It would certainly move things forward and if, as is being widely predicted, it appears as early as next week and then somehow passes, the need for European elections goes away. And so does the prospect of further humiliation at the ballot box for the Government. But it all comes with a warehouse (if you can find one) full of caveats. The WAB is essentially the PM’s deal that has been repeatedly rejected in Parliament, and many of the tweaks that it is likely to contain have already been rejected by the EU. It will not have escaped anyone’s attention that the ante around all things Northern Ireland has been massively upped by the tragic, senseless murder of the young journalist Lyra McKee. The response of those claiming to be the perpetrators was chilling. This is not the first time I have mentioned terrorism in this blog and I make no apologies. There is more to Brexit than what happens between Dover and Calais. Pushing ahead with the WAB is also a high-risk strategy for the PM personally. If it gets voted down, what next for her?
Indeed, her immediate future has been the source of much discussion this week. The 1922 Committee of back bench Tory MPs who decide these things, spent the best part of two days locked away to consider options. Now there is a gig I am not sorry to have missed. The ’22 were considering changing the rules of how the Party elects its leader. If you remember, having survived December’s vote of confidence, the PM is now safe from a further challenge for 12 months. That does not suit some of the more committed Brexiters who want rid. It amuses me that when it comes to electing party leaders or implementing the Fixed Term Parliament Act, those law makers who proclaim the democratic deficit of a second referendum, seem happy enough to ride roughshod over the rules when they become inconvenient. In the end the Committee concluded that it was a bit unfair to change the rules in the middle of the game, but instead have asked the PM to lay out a timetable for her departure. She has already committed to not fighting the next General Election and offered to stand down once her deal has passed through Parliament. Good luck with working out when that is exactly.
Others in the Party are concerned that if she were to leave immediately, before Brexit is concluded, the door would be open for Boris. He would come in, propose a no deal approach which, in turn, would trigger a General Election the Tories would lose and Brexit would not happen. Despite the, apparent, popular appeal of Bozza, I have never been convinced that he would actually make it to the ballot paper. Under those Tory leadership election rules, it is MPs who decide on the final two candidates for the wider membership to vote for. And MPs know the implications of electing a leader who may prove toxic with the general public. The Scottish Conservatives have, rather publicly, revived the wonderfully titled “Operation Arse,” a coordinated campaign to stop Boris at all costs.
Relevant also to these goings on is the fact that Mrs May has presided over another inauspicious first this week. The first ever leak from the National Security Committee. This is the gathering of highfalutin Cabinet Ministers and senior security chiefs to discuss, well, national security. The content was about the decision to allow Chinese technology company Huawei access to our 5G data network, not that that is particularly relevant. The issue is that leaks from the one government committee that has always been above such activity, leave the distinct impression that the Conservative Party is playing out its internal power struggles on a highly inappropriate national stage. It seems clear to political watchers that the leaks, indicating a policy decision along with opposition to it, are the work of officials supporting Cabinet Ministers with leadership ambitions of their own. It matters because it demonstrates the complete breakdown of discipline in the Conservative Party, something people notice and there will be consequences as and when we do get to a General Election. This is likely to be a runner.
The Government’s hopes to get the WAB through in the coming weeks still seem to hinge on talks with Labour. But there appears to have been little progress on that front with no sign of a pivotal May / Corbyn tête-à-tête.
On a more practical note, yesterday we presented ourselves to the House of Lords for the European Union Relationship Group, our regular sit down with Ministers. The headline is that there is now no danger of a no deal exit on 1st June. It is more a matter of timing than any actual recognisable progress. The terms of the flextension indicate that once a deal is ratified, it will come into force on the first day of the next month. The UK has also committed to taking part in the European elections if no deal can be reached by 22nd May, and polling cards have been issued this week. The only way we can leave on 1st June is with a deal. As you will have seen today, the focus on no deal contingency planning is now focused on 31st October. Steve Oldfield, the DHSC’s Chief Commercial Officer and the man in charge of keeping NHS shelves stocked, acknowledged that the need for companies to maintain contingencies was burdensome. The Government will be revising its planning assumptions during May, so expect further advice on what to do with stockpiles etc. shortly thereafter. As always, if you are not getting satisfactory responses, please be in touch and we will advocate on your behalf.
