ABHI Brexit Update: Politics Writ Large
The bell on the ticking clock is about to toll. Maybe. The hacks have been beside themselves this week as the complex, intriguing interaction of local, national and international politics and Politics becomes ever more apparent. The ensuing speculation will only intensify as we approach the first of what I anticipate will be an interminable number of deadlines and summit meetings. Does anyone know what a summit meeting actually is?
This time last week the mood music took on a sudden and unexpectedly positive tenor. We had, apparently, just about agreed a deal. It certainly felt like the negotiators had used the Party Conference season to get on with things whilst everyone was looking the other way. Since then, both sides have remained silent (politics). Perhaps there had been lessons from the PM’s ham fisted performance at Salzburg, where she got all “bloody difficult woman,” when the best option might have been to say nothing at all. She did, however, have Party Conference looming (politics).
Then on Tuesday the DUP’s Arlene Foster had a summit meeting (there we go again) with the EU’s lead negotiator, Michel Barnier. In case you had forgotten, the DUPs 10 MPs prop up the May Government under a “confidence and supply” arrangement (Politics). This allows the Government to function in the knowledge that it has the parliamentary arithmetic in its favour, and can get business passed in the lobby. Anyway, Foster’s meeting was brief, around 30 minutes I understand, and she left furious. And, of course, it is all about the Irish border. As I reported here a few weeks ago there appears to be a willingness by the UK to make additional checks on goods moving between Britain and Northern Ireland. It is probably safe to say that this prospect makes the DUP a bit cross. Effectively this treats Northern Ireland differently to the rest of the UK, a situation the DUP will not countenance. Conscious that they, quite literally, hold the balance of power in Westminster, the party is flexing its muscles. This week they abstained from a vote on the Agriculture Bill which they might ordinarily have been expected to support (Politics). This is a move akin to your cat leaving small, disemboweled mammals at the foot of your bed in order to demonstrate what it might ultimately be capable of. In this case it’s November’s budget, which the DUP is threatening to vote down. The implications of that are unclear, but they would not be good for the Government. Actually on whatever votes there are on Brexit related issues (Withdrawal Bill and Withdrawal and Implementation Bill at least), it will be more about the balance of the number of MPs on both sides of the house wiling to defy their own leadership. Nonetheless, a Government with a fragile grasp on power does not need to be losing votes during a crucial period.
However serious the situation with the DUP is, it, and indeed the whole Brexit process, is a breeze compared with negotiating the situation within the Tory Party. Now that is politics writ large. There are signs that the Cabinet is, once again, split. Some Ministers are getting up to the minute briefings on progress with ongoing negotiations in Brussels, some are not. There is even a rumour that International Development Secretary, Penny Mordaunt, is actually banned from Downing Street, lest she bring negative energy to proceedings. Against this backdrop, May has a crucial Cabinet meeting next Tuesday to secure support for her position at Wednesday’s EU summit (3). More on the outcomes, or lack thereof, of that next week.
Interesting as all this is, it does not help you very much. At the time of writing, the letter from DHSC outing further details of contingency planning has still not been forthcoming. That in the week I have submitted evidence to the Health Committee’s Inquiry into the implications of a no deal Brexit which asked about Government-side planning. I cannot share that with you as it is now property of the Committee, but you will be able to read it in due course. In fact the HSJ claimed a scoop this week on announcing the existence of said letter. At the risk of being immodest (who, me?) we have a pretty good track record of beating the journal to the punch on these things. This time by about a month.
So do watch this space, our Chair is likely to send an update as and when the letter arrives and we are working on a joint statement with NHS Providers to try and offer assurance to Trust Boards.
