ABHI Brexit Update: Brextension Time?
A fantastic photo was doing the rounds yesterday, instantly one of my favourites. It was taken in the early hours of Thursday morning in Le Roy d’Espagne, a bar boasting the finest of addresses. No1, Grand Place, Brussels no less. The picture shows a group of work colleagues letting off steam after the first day of a conference. You know the thing, it could be any of us in town for a MedTech Europe gig or any leadership team, reflecting, sardonically, on the day’s events and moaning about tomorrow’s agenda and the early start which is approaching a little too rapidly. They could be in the motor trade or insurance. But they are not. Amongst the group is the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, the French President, Emmanuel Macron and the Prime Ministers of Belgium and Luxembourg, Charles Michel and Xavier Bettel. And it was late. The party finally broke up around 1am and only then because of the huge scrum of people who had descended on the place were taking photos and getting in the way of the waiters. Now these are my sort of people, this is how you prepare for a major summit meeting, you go on the lash in the Grand Place. I have been in that bar, more than once, and it is proper. This is not American beer they are drinking, this is the world’s best. The stuff that us Brits chug on like it’s Carling and wonder why everything is still fuggy the following Tuesday. And their agenda was hardly car policy and incentive payments. Immigration and International Security were the headlines. It makes you think.
Sadly not being discussed in detail was Brexit. World leaders are, I imagine, like CEOs. Peerless by definition in their own environments, and highly empathetic with others in their position in other places. I imagine also, that 27 of them currently have an awful lot of that empathy focused at Theresa May. They understand her position, she knows the deal she wants and the negotiators have proved that they can get to it, but that is the easy bit. The difficult bit is selling the deal to the UK Parliament. I do not need to tell you again, but I will. It is impossible to come up with the absolute cast iron back stop that the EU is demanding to ensure no hard border in Ireland without treating Northern Ireland differently from the rest of the UK. Impasse. And so they listened to her politely for 15 minutes before Wednesday’s dinner, and then she left to go back to the UK Ambassador’s residence and they dined and went out drinking. She did not say anything really, and they did not really expect her too, and so another pivotal moment in the Brexit process passed squib-like into the night. Remember this was supposed to be the point of no return, the moment when the PM came back to London with a deal on Withdrawal that could be ratified in time for D Day (is that really an appropriate analogy?) in March. Well yesterday’s events were not leading the news headlines this morning were they? Angela Merkel even cancelled the press conference she had lined up for close of play to comment on progress. The EU is ready to hold an emergency summit any time the UK comes back with something specific to talk about, but they have not bothered to set a date in November as was widely trailed. At the moment it is “come back in December, but please, please tell us something new then.” The deal, a little certainty? Next year, after we have actually looked over the actual abyss.
What has come out, and marks progress of a sort I suppose, is the idea to extend the transition / implementation period. “Brextension” some are calling it. Give me strength. And you did not exactly have to be Sherlock Holmes did you? Remember, as the EU has always said, first the divorce and then the discussion on future arrangements. If the divorce happens in March, the discussion runs, if the Withdrawal Agreement is ratified, until December 2020. Realistic timescale given that it took India about 60 years to do similar? No. It was always likely that at some point in the middle of 2020 both sides would realise that they might need a bit more time to sort everything out. Sensible? Yes. But then the politics kicks in. We effectively stay in the EU even longer and that is not Brexit the leavers will cry. And they will have a point. And then there is the money. December 2020 marks the end of the current Multiyear Financial Framework cycle, the EU budget period, so if the transition / implementation period is extended it will come with a price tag for the UK exchequer. And then there is Farage, who has pointed out that if we are still effectively in the EU in May next year, when the European elections happen, then he should have the option of getting himself re-elected.
So what happens next? The negotiators carry on next week and the PM desperately tries to find a solution to the Irish border conundrum that she can get through the House and which will not cause the DUP to vote down next month’s budget. All this could mean that impasse in Brussels becomes impasse in Westminster, and then we are in the territory that many of our news correspondents seem desperate to want to report on – general election / second referendum. Assuming the Tory machine will not push for an election it might lose, we could be looking at the people’s referendum. And, once again, the timing gets interesting. Constitutional experts say it will take 22 weeks to deliver a result. That is past March 29th so Article 50 will need to be paused, and it is past May, so Nigel could be back in the running again. What odds would Ladbroke’s have given you on him serving another term as an MEP?
The letter from DHSC to you has still not appeared, although I know many of you are having meetings in the coming weeks. A letter has gone to Heads of Procurement in all NHS Trusts, with advice on self-assessment, and it says that most of you will be out of scope for such exercises. Our Chair will say more when appropriate, but if you continue to receive requests from individual NHS organisations, please be in touch.
