ABHI Brexit Update: Backstops and Borders
Theresa May has been telling everyone that the deal on the UK’s withdrawal from the EU is 95% done. So that’s alright then. Let’s hope it’s not actually true that 50% of all statistics are made up and this is just one of them. Of course, ordinarily it would beg the obvious question about the remaining 5 per cent, but not, as we know, in this case. Backstops and Borders might sound a bit like the title of a Dwight Yoakam album, but it just about covers things here.
All of us busy people know that the weeks fly by and one can seem pretty much like the last. When the Prime Minister looks at her diary she knows how we feel. Monday – statement to Parliament on Brexit. Tuesday – brief Cabinet on Brexit. Wednesday – put the bins out and attend impossible meeting on Brexit. Last week it was with EU leaders at the not quite so pivotal after all Summit. This time she was afforded an audience with the 1922 Committee. This is the pleasant group of Tory backbenchers who trailed the meeting with words such as “noose” and “stabbing.” The Chair, Graham Brady, is the man to whom disgruntled MPs must write to trigger a vote of no confidence. On balance, Mrs. May might have concluded that 15 minutes of toe-curling in Brussels followed by a night in with the Ambassador represents one of her more agreeable evenings in recent weeks.
To be fair, and in spite of its notoriety, the 1922 is not completely certifiable. Its members understand better than most the two fundamental rules of politics: 1. Get elected. 2. Stay elected. So they tend not, using their own parlance, to eliminate Party leaders and present the corpse to the press pack invariable waiting outside. On Wednesday the pack, with its collective ear pressed against the door, would have heard applause and the banging of desks, public schoolboy like, in approval of whatever it was the PM had to say. Not everyone, however, was totally convinced about the sincerity of this private, public show of unity. It might be that the Committee delivered its version of Eric Cantona’s words on seagulls and trawlers which so wonderfully bemused and sent up a group of journalists who had taken themselves far too seriously for far too long. The PM may once again have survived a difficult moment, but the unrest amongst her backbenchers rumbles on. It has just yet to reach a crescendo.
With no formal set piece on the immediate horizon, the negotiators will be back to it again next week to give the UK a deal it can take back to Westminster. That is likely to be agreed at the next scheduled meeting of EU leaders in December, although I have a sneaking suspicion that something will happen sooner. That would leave December free for rubber stamping and tinsel, and give the UK Government as much time as possible to get a withdrawal agreement ratified by Parliament before March. It is at this point that things will get very exciting if that is what floats your boat. If it does not, you will be shaking your head in despair at the arcane parliamentary processes and ensuing chaos. The only conclusion you will draw is that this is really no way to run a railway.
And it could get nasty for real. Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab, has reiterated that MPs will be given a take it or leave it non amendable motion on whatever deal comes back. That is not the meaningful vote many MPs thought they had been promised and they will not let it pass quietly.
Amongst all this, you will have finally received the letter containing details of contingency plans in the event of no deal. Our Chair has commented in detail, but, in the spirit of this blog, I do have to wonder quite why our friends in DHSC were obliged to sit on it for a month whilst the spin doctors in DExEU and Downing Street pored over the contents. In truth, those working on contingency plans for HMG are as frustrated as we are. It is no wonder that I am permanently grumpy. We should all be very grateful that officials from the Department are coming to update us at our UK Market Conference on 6th November. It is one of many reasons why you really need to be there.
So that is the angst I will take into the half term holiday amid the wonderful warm autumn colours of the wild west of Cornwall. I usually try and leave you with something a little more light-hearted as I head into a break, but such items seem to be in short supply this week. So all I can do is observe that the aforementioned American country music legend celebrates his 62nd birthday this week. Y’all raise a glass now.
