Brexit Update: June 2018
In my last blog, I asked how palatable a customs solution which made it feel like we had not actually left the EU might be to hardline "Brexiteers". This week, we had our answer. In an evening and morning of high drama/pure farce depending on your perspective, the Prime Minister was forced to make a seemingly significant concession on the government’s position regarding the so called “back stop” position on future customs arrangements.
The position, which it is anticipated will never be needed, covers the eventuality that at the end of the transition / implementation period, there has been no agreement on future customs arrangements. As I indicated last time, in the absence of any such agreement and in order to avoid a hard border in Ireland, the only viable solution is to continue with current arrangements until a solution is agreed. The Prime Minister’s preference was to leave this open ended, which prompted an 11th hour, "listen or I resign" intervention from Brexit Secretary David Davis. When the paper was eventually published yesterday, and although it’s not exactly crystal clear to me, there are any number of ifs, buts and maybes, the concession appeared. “The UK expects the future arrangement to be in place by the end of December 2021 at the latest.” That, apparently, is what all the fuss was about.
Elsewhere, the government published its response to the Health Committee’s Brexit report, to which ABHI submitted a written response and discussed with many committee members individually. Ashley Yeo wrote an excellent and helpful summary (requires subscription) in which he also referenced our recently published checklist. Whilst Ashley is right that there is little certainty, the paper at least demonstrates that the government has a good understanding of the issues as they relate to our sector. I am not sure what more they can say at this stage that could answers the questions we all still have.
And, lest we forget, all these shenanigans relate only to our own negotiating stance. It is highly likely that the European Commission will reject the back stop position, having already said that a back stop with a time limit is not a back stop, and the transition period to which it relates has yet, itself, to be ratified.
On Tuesday, the Withdrawal Bill returns to Parliament with 15 amendments from their Lordships, and marks the start of a very tricky few weeks for the government as it tries to get its legislative framework in place. The promised White Paper detailing the UK’s Brexit position is now likely to appear after the June meeting of the EC, not before, heightening the stakes for October’s meeting and making February’s, potentially our last, ever more significant.
Certainty is no closer now than it was two years ago after the Referendum and officials face yet another busy summer.
Richard Phillips
