ABHI Brexit Update: déjà vu all over again
At our “Are you Ready For Brexit” event in April, I said that, in the weeks and months ahead, I would be able to brief you with increasing clarity and certainty on arrangements for the UK’s exit from the EU.
I was wrong.
This week has been case in point. It started out as a pivotal moment in the process, with the Government being potentially humiliated and mortally wounded by a defeat on an amendment to the EU Withdrawal Bill, giving MPs a meaningful vote on the final deal. Next week will start as a pivotal moment in the process, with the Government being potentially humiliated and mortally wounded by a defeat on an amendment to the EU Withdrawal Bill, giving MPs a meaningful vote on the final deal. It would be too much for poor old Yogi Berra, déjà vu all over again does not come close. I would not normally write to tell you nothing has happened, but, given the level of coverage and commentary this week, I felt obliged to at least try to explain what has gone on.
On Tuesday we sat down for dinner with MPs, just as they had finished a long day of voting on the 15 amendments to the Withdrawal Bill sent down from the Lords. “What just happened?” was the collective question. After 15 minutes of explanation from MPs on both sides of the House and a crossbench Peer, we were, quite honestly, none the wiser. The most lucid comment came from my own MP, Derek Thomas (Con), who pointed at our host, Paul Williams (Lab), and said: “They walked through one door and we walked through the other.”
What had happened was that the government had avoided defeat on any of the amendments. To do this they had offered a concession to potential rebels on their own benches, giving Parliament the final say on any deal, or otherwise, that was reached with the EU. That would have, effectively, prevented any prospect of a no deal exit (Hard Brexit), an overwhelmingly pro-Europe House of Commons would not countenance such arrangements. According to one of my most trusted analysts, the concession made the prospect of a very, very soft or, indeed, no Brexit, more likely. After all the hyperbole, the sense of anti-climax hung heavily in the corridors.
But by last night, it appeared the concession was not all it had first seemed. Tory "Brexiteers", whose sense of injustice grows by the hour, had put pressure on the PM, arguing that the arrangements would weaken the UK’s negotiating position, because the option of walking away without a deal had been taken off the table. When the wording of the government amendment (which would deliver the concession) appeared, it offered no meaningful vote because it could not be amended itself. All MPs could do is say that they had noted the government’s position, not force it back to Brussels. As Sarah Wollaston, the Health Committee Chair tweeted, and to give you some Parliamentary language, MPs would have to “amend the ‘unamendable’ after the agreed amendable amendment acquired a sneaky sting in the tail.”
Got it?
Tory rebels were furious and have, perhaps, been emboldened to now defy the PM who they had supported on party lines this week. What happens next is that the, now unamended Bill, goes back to the Lords who will add an amendment to give Parliament a meaningful vote and we start again. The odds, however, have been raised significantly.
In the meantime there is also an acute shortage of “Swords for falling on, Labour frontbenchers for the use of,” as the Party’s lack of a united position begins to bite.
It is foolish to speculate, but any spread bet / accumulator should include one or more of the following. Vote of no confidence. Leadership election for Conservative Party. Leadership election for Labour Party. General election. Hard Brexit. No Brexit at all.
Welcoming you to my world and wishing you a great weekend.
Richard
