ABHI Brexit Update: Referendum Part Deux?
One of those amaze your friends / fill in awkward silences at dinner parties factoids is doing the rounds. Our new Brexit Secretary, Dominc Raab, will have spent more time with the EC’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, in just eight days in office than Raab’s predecessor, David Davis, did in the previous six months.
So the good news is that grown-ups are talking to each other. The bad news is that it is not nearly as interesting to write about.
That is, quite seriously, bad news if you are charged with maintaining public order on our streets. Starved of easy, cheap fodder from the knockabout on the floor of the Commons, or stories of viscious spats between ordinarily Honourable friends, the mainstream media hacks are having to report on more mundane matters. Like considering the eventualities if we make a mess of this and /or end up in the no deal scenario they are all now predicting is increasingly likely. That worries government as it does rather tend to frighten the horses, and leads to accusations of Project Fear Part 2 The Sequel. It is one of the reasons the PM has been happy to roll with the punches thus far.
Now, however, things are changing.
The words “shortages” and “stockpiling” are appearing with alarming regularity in news items, and we all know what effect that has on our great nation of hoarders. Christmas? The Beast from the East? There is not enough wheat on the Prairies to satisfy the demands of panic stricken British households in such circumstances. I have been telling people with money that investing in warehousing is the way to go, because it is increasingly in demand. I had things like drugs, devices, phone chargers and toilet rolls in mind. On reflection, if you have a warehouse, fill it floor to ceiling with freezers and fill the freezers with sliced white. #We'reInTheMoney.
The issue of stockpiling, and comments on such by our new Health Secretary, Matt Hancock, have had a number of you sending, shall we say, “polite enquiries” in my direction. Hancock, appearing in front of the Health Committee gave the impression that plans were well advanced and that industry had been heavily involved. It is not something many of you recognised. What I can tell you is that officials in DHSC have been working diligently on contingency plans which are being stress tested as I write. We are told to expect something of substance and closer engagement with Members in a September / October time frame. Watch this space, but as you will doubtless tell me, it is all getting a bit late in the day.
Meanwhile, HMG has been on a charm offensive to sell the Chequers to all and sundry. Ministers are touring constituency Conservative Parties, the PM meeting with as many EU leaders as she can get to, and Dominic Raab has taken to the Daily Mail to reassure middle England. Raab has also, of course, been spending more time with Barnier. Things seem to be reasonably cordial, although Raab had to endure the experience of listening to Barnier trash the UK’s proposals for future customs proposals at a joint press conference. It will have come as no great surprise, given they had already been described as unworkable by Brussels, but it would have been no less cringeworthy for Raab as a result. In fact the conspiracy theory is that Downing Street knew all along their plans would not fly and will come back from negotiations saying, as I have suggested previously, that the only option is to stay in the customs union indefinitely.
There is also something of a movement developing supporting the idea of a “People’s Vote,” a second referendum. Downing Street said last week that there would, under no circumstances, be a second referendum, which you can interpret as meaning it is very likely.
Last year, Downing Street said that there would, under no circumstances, be a general election, four weeks before announcing a general election.
To the fore, and making the most sense to me is former PM, Tony Blair. Remember him? Blair argues that a Chequers style Brexit will prevent any economic disruption for the UK, but it is not really Brexit, as it will keep us so close to the EU machinery.
What, then, is the point?
Hard Brexit delivers a meaningful exit, but will likely produce significant economic disruption to the UK for the foreseeable future.
What, then, is the cost?
Given we now have a better understanding of the implications of these choices than we did when we went to the polls in June 2016, why not give us the option again?
It will be one to watch over the summer, and the position is gaining support in some unusual places. Coming out in favour this week was Gary Lineker (used to play soccer, dodgy toe, likes crisps). It would be something, would it not, if a wave of populism that led us to vote leave were to be overwhelmed by a wave of populism that wants us to now stay?
The analogies of this reaching a conclusion are numerous and include; Bobby Ewing emerging from the shower, remembering for the umpteenth time, but not until the very end, that the adventures of Chitty Chitty Bang Bang was only a story being told on the beach, and taking an Irish approach to when a Referendum delivers the wrong result. You will have your favourites and I will award a prize for the best you share with me.
You can also send Remoaner jokes - I said I would try and find some for you, but have had no luck. Or was that actually no look.
