ABHI Brexit Update: It's All About Politics
Many of you reading this know me very well, so I feel the need to be completely honest with you. I have to admit that I am not totally sure exactly who Danny Dyer is, but he does seem to have made a reasonable point recently. I have thought about Brexit every day since the Referendum, and on the vast majority of those days I have read, listened or written about the subject. This week, however, has really been something to behold. I think we have learnt absolutely nothing about how we might best serve patients here and in the EU27 after March next year, but we have witnessed some astonishing parliamentary pantomime. It comes to something when the grandson of Winston Churchill feels compelled to say "the whole thing needs to be blow up", as he expressed his dismay in the Commons.
Last week, on the Government’s Brexit White Paper (becoming known as the “Chequers Agreement”) I wrote “The government may well find itself in the situation where there is no consensus in Parliament on either side of the debate.” If there is a literary prize for ridiculous understatement, I may just have snaffled it. If you are in to that sort of thing it created drama of the highest order. The prospect of the Government losing votes on the two Bills that came back to the Commons this week, and the unpredictable and often irrational sequela of events that inevitably follow, was a very real possibility anyway, but this was surely irresistible. Somehow, and by no more than a tiny majority in votes on key amendments, the Government hung on. The PM may be making a bit of a habit of this, but not even she will be able to tell you exactly how she did it, and only time will tell us at what cost.
Actually she had to rely on some rather unedifying behaviour in some rather unusual places. Hard left Labour Eurosceptics in cahoots with the far-right Tory Brexit brigade and voting with the Government. The leader of the Liberal Democrats and his immediate predecessor being conspicuously and inexplicably absent from the Lobby, and Brandon Lewis, the Conservative Party Chair, accused of almost unspeakable skulduggery. Lewis was “paired” with the absent on maternity leave Jo Swinson, an arrangement that allows for a least some sense of fair play, when, in such circumstances, opposing MPs effectively cancel themselves out by not voting. Somehow he managed to get confused and voted twice on Tuesday, coincidentally when the outcome was too close to call. He did apologise, admitting a mistake, which is fair enough and these things do happen, even to experienced Parliamentarians. His regret might have had more of an air of authenticity about it, however, had he not apparently remembered the procedure on seven other occasions during the day.
I promised to try and make sense of those Bills for you, so here is how I saw it.
First up was Customs on Monday. It arrived with four so called “wrecking amendments,” laid down by Jacob Rees-Mogg and his pals, angry at what they saw as a super soft, Brexit in name only "Chequers Agreement". This is an attempt to force the Government, via amended legislation, to take an approach to future customs arrangements that will so obviously be rejected by the EU, it increases the likelihood of Hard Brexit / No Deal / Non negotiated withdrawal – take your pick on which phrase, they all mean the same.
The amendments variously prevented the UK collecting tariffs on behalf of the EU without a reciprocal agreement, prevented a customs union without an Act of Parliament, having a separate VAT system with the EU and effectively busting the EU’s backstop position of a border in the Irish Sea. So far, so predictable, some disgruntled back benchers flexing their muscles.
What happened next was perhaps less so.
The Government elected not to contest the amendments, arguing that they were mostly consistent with its policy. I think that it what is called a moot point. Then again, I suppose if you don’t have a policy and/or you don’t know what it is yourself and/or you can’t articulate it to anybody else, then just about anything is mostly consistent with it.
The amendments duly passed.
It’s fair to say the pro Europeans on the Conservative benches were a bit miffed. Incandescent might just about cover it. But they smelt blood and felt their time would come on Tuesday with the Trade Bill. Their killer amendment would insist the Government would seek a customs union if no deal that guaranteed a frictionless EU/UK border was forthcoming by January of next year. That did not seem, to them, unreasonable, after all a frictionless border was at the heart of Chequers. The problem was the amendment featured the words “customs” and “union” in close proximity, a combination that provokes a terrifying, Pavlovian response amongst Brexiteers. There will, of course, be a customs union of some sort, because, as I have said before, without one there is a hard border in Ireland. The problem is, the PM can’t say so, indeed she keeps saying the opposite, afraid of the dogs. The solution will be the old trick of calling it something else, just not using the CU word.
So where does that leave us?
Certainly nowhere close to the certainty everyone craves. This week has all been purely about Politics. On face value, it is hard not to conclude that it is advantage Brexiteers in the Tory civil war. The PM’s tactics have been to cave in to the demands of her troublesome leavers, whilst telling the other side that unless they tow the party line, they will be personally responsible for triggering a General Election in which they will all lose their seats. It follows then, that this will dictate the type of Brexit Mrs May can deliver, and the prospect of No Deal etc. is ever more likely.
You can feel a “but” coming on can’t you?
I have a sneaking suspicion that the PM is playing this better that many are giving her credit for. One of the great political skills is knowing what to concede, to whom and when. For all the anger, recriminations, drama and self-harm caused by Parties of all shades this week, and whatever you read in the papers, the PM still has a Brexit plan. The one agreed at Chequers. It is that White Paper that is now being pored over in Brussels and which will form the basis of at least the start of negotiations.
I am not ruling out any eventuality at any time, but unless something, miraculous even by current standards, happens over the weekend, the PM will have made it to the recess. Downing Street, I understand, is not unduly worried about what has happened this week, even talking about a decent outcome. Free from having to look behind her in the Chamber of the Commons, the PM can now get on with the serious business of having something ready for ratification in October. She has already started gearing up. 50 civil servants have been transferred from DExEU to the Cabinet Office where the real Brexit action happens, and officials have a busy few months ahead whilst you all head off to the Med.
Attention, then, will now turn to Brussels where our new Brexit Secretary, Dominic Rabb’s first visit coincided with a communication from the EC on preparing EU27 businesses for Brexit of any eventuality. It was some welcome, suggesting we are dealing with negotiators a class apart. The documents are pretty accessible and feature a four page factsheet, a worthwhile, if sobering read.
After all that, some levity and my favourite Brexit joke so far. It is courtesy of Rory Bremner (or at least his scriptwriter) in a game of Uxbridge English Dictionary on ISIHAC. For those of you not as addicted to Radio 4 as I am, it’s the round in the antidote to panel games where contestants have to give an old word a new definition. In this case, Brexiteer – selective deafness.
For those of you now getting all worked up about editorial bias, calm down. I will try and find one about Remoaners for you next time.
