ABHI Brexit Update: And so to the White Paper
Well, I am claiming a points win in last week’s battle of the pundits.
Other more high profile, and doubtless far more richly rewarded commentators, were predicting that the Buckinghamshire countryside would be littered with body bags following the Chequers summit. I, on the other hand, was preparing you to be underwhelmed. The PM, I reasoned, would produce one of her last minute, Roadrunner style body swerves to avoid colliding with the freight train heading in her direction. She was actually a bit more forthright, “my way or the highway” in fact, but I felt quite smug for 48 hours at least.
In the end, two Cabinet resignations, even if one was “him,” hardly represents a bloodbath, and collective responsibility prevails again for now.
The PM’s problems now lie with the revolting Brexiteers on her back benches. They are certainly disgruntled about the prospect of a super soft Brexit, but it seems unlikely that they can force her from office. The current arithmetic simply does not work, and the country might not be very forgiving if the next three months were to be spent on a Conservative Party leadership contest. The risk of forcing a losable general election is also not present in the Tory DNA. Besides, anything that created that level of instability would likely conspire to delay Brexit and/or make it more likely not to actually happen at all.
Some MPs have said that they will vote against a Chequers type deal in the autumn, but it might not be that simple. I have tried to explain here previously, the wrestling that went on over giving MPs a meaningful vote on the final deal, and it is far from straightforward. There would be some sort of comical irony, would there not, if MPs had actually already denied themselves the ability do so.
And so to the White Paper which arrived as expected yesterday, quite unusual in itself by current standards. We have had Strong and Stable, we have had Weak and Wobbly and now we have Principled and Practical. That is how HMG is selling the Chequers deal, so prepare to hear this ad nauseam in the coming months.
If you had shared my pleasure of wading through the 17 future partnership and position papers and technical notes that appeared last summer, you would not find too much to surprise you in this White Paper. Indeed, the position the PM is able to take has some self-defining constraints.
There is the Parliamentary arithmetic, which dictates that compromises have to be made. There is the fact that manufacturing businesses (including us), appear to have won the argument that the complex, international nature of supply chains means that UK/EU borders need to remain as frictionless as possible. And, of course, there is the desire to avoid watchtowers and armed guards reappearing on the Irish border.
Taken together, they lead to a certain course of action.
The paper proposes, therefore, a new Free Trade Area for goods, governed by a common “Rule Book” and aimed at maintaining frictionless borders, and continued involvement in the European machinery for highly regulated industries. The arrangements would depend on delivering the proposed new Facilitated Customs Arrangement (I tried to explain that last time). There would be an end to free movement of people per se, but there is provision for citizens to move for jobs, business and tourism without the need for visas. Everything will be underpinned by an “Association Agreement” which will see UK and EU leaders in regular dialogue, mutual agreement on dispute resolution, and the UK paying due regard to relevant case law established by the European Courts of Justice.
So all sorted then, what can possibly go wrong?
Well, maybe just the politics of it. The government may well find itself in the situation where there is no consensus in parliament on either side of the debate. Brexiteers sense yet another betrayal, do not recognise the need for such close alignment with the EU, and see this as leaving in name only. The other side are viewing this as essentially a hard Brexit, with special provisions for the movement of goods. The cross border provision and regulation of services is not included, and another solution needs to be found. This is a bit of a problem for UK plc because, if you had not noticed, we are a service based economy. 80% so.
The next few days will again be interesting and testing for the PM. The Trade and Customs Bills come back to the Commons next week, with Tory rebels threatening all sorts of manoeuvring to demonstrate their potential muscle power when it comes to the clutch in the autumn. The Bills also contain amendments that could yet prove to be crucial, and, if the government were to lose a vote, anything might happen. I will try and make sense of all that for you next week.
In the meantime, the mood music is positive with regard to the frictionless movement (of goods at least) between the UK and EU 27, but it is probably best not to get too carried away just yet. Easy to forget that all this is about trying to agree a negotiating position for the UK to take to Brussels.
Once it gets there, much of it, by definition, will change, as the Council presents its own vision of the future.
Finally, a big thank you for all the kind words I have received about the style and content of this blog. My ego is fine anyway, but I appreciate so many of you taking the time. Brexit, it seems, is the new Rock n’ Roll. Who knew?
