ABHI Guest Blogs with Paul Bristow: Brexit
Only a fool would make political predictions, this is especially true after the two years we have had in both UK and global politics. So here are some from me:
The Government will last throughout 2018 and Theresa May will remain Prime Minister. She will continue to face Jeremy Corbyn at PMQs, as he will stay on as Labour leader. This, despite Brexit.
As she reached the end of 2017, the Prime Minister may be forgiven for feeling pleased with herself. She has reached a deal (for now) with EU leaders on Northern Ireland, despite being publicly slapped down by both the Democratic Unionist Party and the House of Commons.
It is a dramatic reversal of fortunes for an embattled PM, who began 2017 with everything going her way, suffered a disappointing election result mid-year and subsequently came under real pressure to resign. She somehow managed to finish 2017 enjoying her position only with the day-to-day support of a few cabinet ministers, without whom she would be gone.
The Prime Minister has already had a busy start to 2018, hosting the first cabinet meeting to decide what sort of trade relationship the UK Government wants with the EU. Very senior figures such as Philip Hammond, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, and Amber Rudd, the Home Secretary, have been vocal about supporting Britain’s very close involvement with the single market after Brexit. However, Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and Environment Secretary Michael Gove are aligned with the Hard Brexiteers, who want no continued regulatory ties with the European Union.
The result of this 1 hour 45 minute meeting was that the UK will not stay part of the European Economic Area, which would be “democratically unsustainable”, nor would a Canada-style deal be broad enough.
This means the UK will demand a different type of relationship with the EU, a more bespoke model that is representative of our historic relationship with the EU and respects the public’s desire for independence.
So my final prediction for 2018 is this – that both the UK Government and EU leaders will compromise and agree a deal that creates a new relationship which will be beneficial for the long term future of both sides.
Paul Bristow
Paul Bristow is the Managing Director of PB Consulting: a specialist public affairs and consultancy service.