ABHI Brexit Update: One is Enough, the Rest is Just Ego
Remember a couple of weeks ago I talked about the folly of heading for the icebergs if they just so happened to be in the way of where you want to get to? Well I think she knows but simply does not care. And at the moment she is lifting said icebergs, chewing them up and spitting them out.
In case you missed it, well it is party season I suppose. On Tuesday, and as predicted by the smartest pundits last week, faced with certain defeat in the “meaningful vote” on her plans for withdrawal and future partnership, the PM flicked the parliamentary equivalent of a V at everyone. There would not be a vote after all. The next day she won a vote of confidence in her leadership amongst Conservative MPs by a margin of 83 votes. The requisite 48 MPs, those of the Jacob Rees-Mogg, / Steve Baker ilk, had submitted “we don’t like her very much” letters to Sir Graham Brady, Chair of the 1922 Committee of backbench MPs, forcing a vote. In what is a secret ballot, 117 voted to force the resignation of Mrs. May as leader of the Party. But 200 did not. And that is a bigger number. According to Conservative Party rules, she can now not be challenged as leader for the next 12 months.
So after another week in which I, honestly, would have run away in tears, the PM arrived in Brussels on Thursday for another Summit in not only a stronger position than she might have been, but in the strongest position she has been in personally for some time. She avoided being humiliated in a “meaningful vote” defeat, and now has the public support of her party. Do not take any account of the numbers. One of my favourite sayings in politics is that “one is enough, the rest is just ego.” Granted she said she will not fight the next election, but that is three and a half years away, long beyond the time when deals will have been signed and transition periods ended. Or not. For now, though, there is no doubt amongst other EU leaders that it is Mrs. May with whom they will be negotiating for the foreseeable future. Strength is, however, relative, and we will see what all this will do for her in the coming days.
When she does eventually send for Pickfords, I am not sure what she is going to do to maintain her adrenaline fix. Running through wheat fields is not going to cut it. Cave diving, volcanology or chasing Twisters across the High Plains are a few of my suggestions for her.
Impressive as her resilience has once again been, it is perhaps worth more of a ripple rather than the full Bravo. The week’s events have not actually helped the rest of us much. She still has a plan that she cannot get through Parliament, that Brussels is not for moving on and there is no solution to the Irish border that is either acceptable to all sides or practicable to implement. So amongst those, and I wager there will be a fair few of you reading this, who believed we would never actually leave the EU, there have been wry smiles aplenty this week. It is all going to plan. Impasse in Westminster. Impasse in Brussels. Second Referendum. No Brexit. As you were everyone. If I were a betting man…. But you know what I am going to say next. Speculation is foolish. I will leave that for next week’s Christmas Special.
What is not speculation is that the level of uncertainty is increasing, so contingency plans continue. We are still trying to assess the effect that Friday’s letter from the Secretary of State’s on contingency planning and revised planning assumptions has had on the NHS. Remember the last time he wrote, effectively taking you all out of scope of local contingency planning exercises, the letter produced precisely the opposite reaction from Trusts.
One of the positives of last week’s letters is that they have brought the contingency planning process out in to the open. No more private meetings, constrained by NDAs at which everything was “in theory.” We are now at the stage when we need to accurately assess the operational viability of plans drawn up by policy makers should we be faced with a no-deal scenario. This is why you will have received another request for information from our colleagues in the DHSC. This is needed such that officials can assess the precise requirements of any additional freight capacity that has to be secured. We hope that this, once only exercise will not prove too burdensome for you and present the opportunity to forge a closer, productive relationship with the Department.
So all said and done there has never been a better time to be close to the action, which makes our annual Member outing to Parliament particularly apposite this year. We are especially pleased that the Reception on 14th January will be attended by the Secretary of State, Matt Hancock, his Shadow, Jon Ashworth and our Minister in the DHSC, Lord O’Shaughnessy. If you join us, a host of other Parliamentarians and our friends from across the Health and Care space, you will get the chance to hear the results of our latest business survey, and the broader actions needed to support our industry. I look forward to seeing you then. There is even a free drink it.
