ABHI Brexit Update: Between now and the Meaningful Vote
This week I got asked the dreaded question from one of our Members. Can you help me to explain to my Board what is going to happen between now and the meaningful vote, and what the consequences are of no-deal? I suppose I should be pleased I was trusted enough to be asked the question. Apparently, and a little to my surprise, my response was deemed good enough that our Board suggested that I share it more widely. So with all the obvious caveats, here goes.
“Your question, and my response, take us into the realms of 100% speculation and speculation is foolish. So, holding that thought, you may wish to consider what is nothing more than my own opinion.
You are quite right to say that the level of uncertainty has increased in recent days. Indeed, it is far from certain that there will even be a vote on the 11th. (See my blog of Friday last 30/12 and other media coverage). If the vote is pulled, or the Government loses, it will probably get us to the same place initially. That is the UK going back to Brussels seeking a "better" deal. The stumbling block is the same one it has been since the Referendum - how you prevent a hard border in Ireland.
It is actually quite easy. You either remain in the customs union or you treat Northern Ireland differently to the rest of the UK. The latter is not an option I think any UK government could countenance, as it would effectively be a united Ireland and all the baggage that comes with it. The former is the arrangement that I always believed would prevail if we leave, simply because there is no other solution to the Irish border. What is in the deal, and what I also thought, means that this arrangement could go on indefinitely given there is no obvious and easily implementable solution to the Irish border. Staying within "the" or "a" customs union has consequences though, the main one, politically, being that it is effectively not leaving the EU, which is why so many cannot support it.
Assuming the vote does happen on the 11th, it is hard to see, from this point, how the Government can avoid being defeated. However, there are five full days of debate between now and then, during which all sorts of pressure will be put on / incentives offered to people to support the Government. The Labour Party also appears to have come off the fence and say that it will bring a vote of no confidence in the Government if the vote is lost. I actually think it is unlikely that they would be able to get the 2/3 of the House needed to force a general election, but Government Whips will be using this to rally their own MPs. The message will be that unless you support us, there will be a general election in which you will lose your seats.
Now assume the vote is lost. Nobody really knows what will happen next. It is possible that we will be in the same position as we would be if there is no vote, which I described above. It is impossible to predict what the response of Brussels would be, but let us assume impasse.
We would then have the situation where the UK Parliament would have to make a momentous decision. I actually think that No Brexit is more likely than No-Deal. Most MPs did not want to leave the EU and so would be more comfortable in supporting a second Referendum than they would in agreeing for the UK to leave without a deal. Either way would bring a delay, and more uncertainty. It would take 22 weeks to deliver the result of a referendum and who knows how long of back and forth between the UK and Brussels to settle on a deal that the UK Parliament could ratify. It is possible to pause Article 50 at any point, so March 29th does not present an absolute stop.
In a no-deal scenario, it should be remembered that no-deal is actually a spectrum of things, rather than a single, predictable outcome. Would absolutely everything stop? No. Would the likelihood of delays and disruptions to supply chains increase? Yes. Beyond that it is hard to say exactly what it would look like. Remember most of the work being done across Government departments these past few weeks has focused on contingency plans in the event of no-deal. The DHSC has some very detailed plans to mitigate, and, if you have not already done so, it would be worth having a private meeting with the Department to discuss your peculiar concerns and issues.
I can say that the Government has recognised that medical supplies are amongst the highest priority for contingencies along with food and energy. There is also an understanding of the issues related to component parts as well as fully finished goods.”
That was on Tuesday morning and I think most of it still holds. And that is true even with the small matter of events in Parliament later that evening. This government became the first in British history to be held in contempt of Parliament over the non-publication of its legal advice on the backstop, and went on to lose two further votes that likely handed control over what happens next if the meaningful vote is lost to MPs. The PM has moved a little on the backstop, suggesting a compromise whereby MPs would be given a vote on whether or not to implement it. It was an offer that was not well received and does not look like it is going to tip the balance back in her favour. She has also stressed that the vote will definitely happen next week as planned. Do not believe it. If I were advising her, I would see what the Whips were saying on Monday and if it still looks ugly, it is time to get all humble and magnanimous. “There will not be a vote as the will of the House is clear etc. etc.” Avoid an embarrassing defeat and you are going to Brussels for the Summit on the 13th anyway. Generally, however, it is looking bleak for Mrs May and all the energy she has expended over the past few days, as yet, has not moved her forwards.
We also learned that it is likely the UK can unilaterally withdrawal Article 50 and stay in the EU after all. An outcome that seems ever more likely with the passage of time.
Still, contingency plans are ramping up - see the note from our Chair earlier. Also, in something I have not seen before, the DHSC has launched an “Informal consultation on urgent changes to the Human Medicines Regulation 2012 to ensure the continuity of supply of medicines (including in a ‘no deal’ Brexit).” What would ordinarily have been a full public consultation is a truncated, targeted version aimed at giving discretionary powers to community Pharmacists in the event of “serious shortages.” I think what that means is that when you find your prescription is incomplete / strangely substituted, this time it was done on purpose.
The big TV debate has all gone a bit Upstairs, Downstairs. And it is not me perpetuating class stereotypes. The PM’s choice was BBC whilst Corbyn wanted ITV. It is all a bit academic now anyway as the Beeb has surrendered to the inevitable. The PM just cannot compete with witchetty grubs, blue whales, Darcey Bussell and the Dr, so Auntie is out. Labour still keen to go ahead on ITV, and if it does go ahead, it will be interesting to see which of the majors opt to have their Christmas ads either side of the ensuing handbags.
I have no idea what I will be telling you about next week. When I have left you with The Archers style cliffhangers previously, events have been underwhelming. We will see.
