ABHI Brexit Update: Strange and Terrible Times
I have not got a great deal to tell you this week. There is certainly a shortage of tall stories emanating from SW1 now that the children in the Westminster playground have gone on their holidays. They are all now secure in their boltholes, an improbable number actually near me in the Wild West, steeling themselves for what is likely to be the mother of all acrimonious punch-ups in the autumn. That’s when what passes for our Parliament these days has to agree, or otherwise, whatever deal with Europe is hammered out during the summer.
Conspiracy theories, of course, abound. The most interesting I have read is from the FT which foresees two scenarios in which the UK leaves the EU, but joins the European Economic Area (EEA) – what some were calling a “Norway model.” The first sees the PM, finally mortally wounded by a failure to secure a deal, triggering a general election. The British people, frustrated by the Conservative Party’s inability to deliver an orderly Brexit, return a Labour Government. Prime Minister, Jeremy Corbyn (and I don’t think I am ever going to say that for real) takes us in to the EEA as a way of honouring the result of the 2016 Referendum, whilst buying time to work out exactly what his Brexit strategy actually is. In the other, again a no deal, Mrs May hangs on, terrier like, and uses the EEA as a stopgap until we can agree what happens on the Irish border.
We will see.
Actually it seems as if attitudes in the EU27 towards the Chequers agreement have softened, but as I keep saying to you, we are in “absolutely anything could happen at any time” territory, and it is foolish to speculate. The wave that we are riding apparently taking us to no deal, could just as easily deliver us a general election and/or a second referendum and/or no Brexit. As Hunter S Thompson might have said, we are living in strange and terrible times.
Back in the real world, the PM curtailed her holiday in Italy to break in on President Macron’s in France, before heading to Austria. Jeremy Hunt (and I am kind of missing him now he has left our world) was also in France, which is being seen as both the most difficult nut to crack and the most likely source of support from within the 27. In truth, as the admirable Roy Lilley observed last year, we will end up with the deal that the Germans want that the French will agree to. It is easy to criticise them, and I have probably, myself, aimed the occasional cheap shot, but the fact is that since the Referendum, Ministers in DExEU, BEIS, DIT and the FCO have worked very hard on our behalf. Conspicuously so. They have a busy summer ahead and an impossible Party Conference to negotiate, before facing general hostility from all sides when the slugfest reconvenes in October.
We have made some progress this week relating to the bit in my last missive, where the Secretary of State’s comments about detailed planning and close industry involvement had most of you scratching your heads. Officials have assured us that planning will be accelerated, so whoever is keeping the lights on at your place in August, should look out for correspondence from DHSC on contingency planning. We will keep things updated on our website, so stay tuned. We are also working to secure a date for a post summer briefing from the Office for Life Sciences, and there will also be something bespoke for our SME sector.
So that is it from me for a while now. I am still looking for a winning entry for the best analogy for when we end up not leaving, and also some Remoaner jokes that I can share in polite company. You may not get much sense from my usual media before September now, so send things on a postcard to me c/o the Fisherman’s Arms, Fore Street, Newlyn, where, from next Thursday, I will be zoned out.
Enjoy your summers.
